People should not try to predict the future. Especially the future of IT.
It causes only problems.
At first, we extrapolate linearly and continuously, assuming the the current conditions to be present in future – just with other values. These values should “obey” the historical statistics (the business of all investment funds is based upon). History tells us – however – that the future is not always continuous – and it changes non-linearly. Remind Covid, the Ukrainian war, earthquakes, and broken
supply chains, migrations, and business prohibitions.
The human being is not prepared to predict the non-continuous non-linear future!
Second – the human brain tends to be optimistic, assuming the probable events as sure when they are
beneficial, and less probable events as impossible when they are not beneficial. (I can remember the research on stock exchange investors’ behavior, but i think this rule can be generalized to every domain).
The more objective assessment of reality provides a person with slight depression!
Somebody without depression should not try to predict the future, as the prediction will be more optimistic than it should be.
Third – there is no discussion about the IT future without processes (not only business but also
entertainment, social communication, military, etc.). It is and will be a toolset for improving and enhancing human activity and it will be developed in a direction to fulfil the current needs. The AI is not the first – and not the last buzzword… (although its power is amazing).
Maybe in the far future IT – empowered with AI – will be fully autonomous… (Remember the “last question” of Issac Asimov). But now it is still S-F.
Getting back to current IT, it is pointless to discuss the future of IT, without discussing the future of
the social order and the future of the “next-generation corporations”.
After this long argumentation, I am not going to predict the future of IT 😊
But some options for possible IT development are visible, and I will try to share these visions in the
next posts.